The right-wing parties of the EU parliamentary group Identity and Democracy (ID) could be the big winners of the European elections scheduled for next June, latest polling has shown.
In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is running under this umbrella, as is Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in France, the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), Dutch election winner Geert Wilders’ PVV, and Matteo Salvini’s Lega in Italy.
According to a new poll by Europe Elects, together they would win 87 out of 705 seats. That would be a gain of 23 seats. The ID would thus replace the right-wing conservative group European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) as the fourth-strongest force in the European Parliament.
Right-wing ECR will also make gains in European elections
The ECR group, however, led by Spain’s Vox, Poland’s PiS, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia could also improve on their 2019 result. According to the current projection, it would increase from 67 to 82 mandates. In total, the two right-wing groups would then receive around 23 percent of the seats in the European Parliament. Other parties that do not belong to either of the two right-wing groups, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, would also be added.
The poll for the European elections also predicts a major loss for the Greens. They would only get 52 seats instead of 72. The liberal Renew Europe group, which in Germany includes the FDP and the Free Voters, is also likely to lose. Of its 101 seats, only 89 are likely to remain.
EPP wants to work together with the Socialists and Greens
The survey estimates the strongest parliamentary group would remain the European People’s Party (EPP) with the CDU/CSU as the dominant force. It would lose three seats but would still have 175 after the European elections, while the social democratic S&D would retain 141 seats. However, the two right-wing groups ID and ECR would be stronger together and together would have 169 seats – almost as many as the EPP.
The EPP has already announced its intention to work together with the Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens. EPP Secretary General Thanasis Bakolas recently ruled out cooperation between his EPP and the ECR or ID. With socialists, liberals, and greens, the EU could “move in the right direction”, he said.