The latest United Surveys poll conducted for the Wirtualna Polska news outlet shows that the Polish political scene might be witnessing a significant shift.
The poll indicates that if elections were to be held next Sunday, the conservative Law and Justice party, formerly in power and led by Jarosław Kaczyński, would garner 28.3 percent of the vote, closely followed by the Civic Coalition (KO) with 28.2 percent. This near tie marks a notable change in the political landscape, especially under the new governance of the coalition between the Civic Platform (PO), the Third Way, and the Left.
The Third Way, a coalition between the Polish People’s Party (PSL) and Poland 2050, has secured the third spot in the poll, with 18.9 percent support, reflecting an increase of 2 percentage points. This rise is largely attributed to the influence of the speaker of the Polish parliament, Szymon Hołownia, and his public activities.
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Meanwhile, the Left and the Confederation party are crossing the electoral threshold, polling at 9.6 percent (a decrease of 0.8 percentage points) and 7.6 percent (an increase of 0.8 percentage points), respectively. Additionally, 1 percent of participants opted for “another party,” while 6.4 percent remain undecided.
Professor Robert Alberski, a political scientist from the University of Wrocław, observes a “state of equilibrium” between PiS and KO. He notes stable ratings for both the Left and the Confederation, with the Third Way being the only group showing significant gains, a phenomenon he attributes to the “Hołownia effect.”
Professor Rafał Chwedoruk from the University of Warsaw points out the emerging electoral battle between the Third Way and PiS. He suggests that the Third Way is capitalizing on both the electoral outcome and Szymon Hołownia’s public activities.
Chwedoruk also mentions that the current coalition between KO, the Third Way and the Left could secure a majority in regional assemblies in elections to be held in April. He speculates that PiS, despite its previous dominance, could permanently shift to being the “number 2 formation” in Polish politics, a significant change from its earlier ruling position.