Support for Law and Justice (PiS) is growing, but still not enough to form a government

According to the latest poll, six parties and coalitions would get seats in the Polish parliament at the next election

editor: Grzegorz Adamczyk
author: dorzeczy.pl
Source: Twitter/Kancelaria Sejmu

Support for Poland’s United Right coalition (PiS and Solidarity Poland) has risen almost a percentage point to 37 percent, but it still falls short of being capable of forming the next government, the latest polling revealed.

The Estymator poll for dorzeczy.pl showed the conservative coalition ahead of its opposition by more than 8 percentage points, with the Civic Coalition (Civic Platform, Modern, The Greens, Polish Initiative) attaining 28.8 percent of the vote, down 0.6 percent.

Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 received 9.1 (+0.9 percent) percent of the votes; The Left (Democratic Left Alliance, Spring, Left Together) was backed by 8.9 percent (-1.2 percent); Confederation (New Hope, National Movement) stood at 7.6 percent (+0.2 percent); The Polish People’s Party (PSL) at 6.6 percent (-0.3 percent); and Kukiz’15 at 1.4 percent (-0.2 percent).

The number of respondents who would vote for a party not listed doubled to 0.6 percent.

With this vote share converted into the distribution of seats, the United Right coalition would receive 209 seats, 22 shy of commanding a majority.

Civic Coalition would secure 146 seats in the parliament, 12 more than in the previous elections. Poland 2050 would get 35 mandates; The Left would have 29, compared to 49 in the previous elections. Confederation would get 11 more seats compared to 2019. The Polish People’s Party (PSL) could expect to get 18 seats and Kukiz’15 would not receive a single seat.

The research also explored the possibility of political coalitions forming. If Poland 2050 joined in with the Polish People’s Party, and Law and Justice with Kukiz’15, the latter would have 207 mandates compared with the Civic Coalition’s 138, while the former would be at 55 mandates. The Left would have 31 mandates and Confederation, 28 mandates.

The expected voter turnout is 56 percent.

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